Ukraine War Threatens to Create Global Food Crisis
A global food/hunger crisis is just one of the many pitfalls of the war in Ukraine. The country, long known as Europe’s Bread Basket, is now contending with a destabilized, war-impacted agriculture sector that could lead to a global food and hunger crisis. Ukraine and Russia account for a quarter of global grains trade and Russia is also a leading producer of fertilizer (phosphate, potash) critical for global agriculture. The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that food prices could surge by as much as 20 percent, a significant spike that could exacerbate global food insecurity. Nearly 283 million people in 81 countries currently face acute food insecurity or are at high risk, according to the World Food Program, with 45 million on the brink of famine.”
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Ukraine and Russia’s Share of Global Grains Trade (Courtesy: Bloomberg)
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Foreign Policy Magazine
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/24/russia-war-ukraine-food-crisis-wheat-fertilizer/
“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatens to spark a global food crisis, as simultaneous disruptions to harvests and global fertilizer production are driving up food prices and sending economic shock waves throughout the world.
After a month of war, economists and aid agencies say the world is facing merging crises that could rapidly spiral into a global food emergency. The conflict has already slashed Russian and Ukrainian exports of crucial commodities such as wheat, sunflower oil, and corn, a disturbance that has rippled across import-reliant countries in the Middle East and North Africa. At the same time, the ongoing energy crunch has drastically increased fertilizer prices and transportation costs, squeezing the key inputs for global agricultural production.
These disruptions have converged in a “perfect storm,” said Ertharin Cousin, a distinguished fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and former executive director of the World Food Program. “That could result in a cataclysmic spike in food prices.”
Together, Russia and Ukraine account for roughly 30 percent of global wheat exports, while Russia is the world’s top fertilizer exporter. Both fertilizer and food prices have already climbed to record levels as the war impedes shipments and Western sanctions hit Russia. In the early weeks of the conflict, Kyiv also banned exports of wheat and other key food staples, while Moscow urged its fertilizer producers to temporarily suspend exports….”
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WFP
As the emergency operation in Ukraine moved into high gear today, the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) expressed deep concern about the waning ability of families in embattled areas to find food and also warned that the crisis could have consequences well beyond Ukraine’s borders.
“In a year when the world is already facing an unprecedented level of hunger, it’s just tragic to see hunger raising its head in what has long been the breadbasket of Europe,” said WFP Executive Director David Beasley during a visit to a staging hub set up by the organization on the Polish-Ukrainian border. “The bullets and bombs in Ukraine could take the global hunger crisis to levels beyond anything we’ve seen before.”
With reports coming in of severe shortages of food and water in Kyiv, the capital, and the northeastern city of Kharkiv, WFP teams are setting up operations and hubs in countries neighbouring Ukraine. These will both facilitate delivery of food assistance into the country and assist refugees coming over the borders.
The immediate priority is to establish a food lifeline into Kyiv and other conflict hotspots. With consignments of food assistance arriving every day, WFP is in a race against time to pre-position food in areas where…”
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NPR
“Russia's invasion of Ukraine isn't only jeopardizing the lives of Ukraine's citizens. The war is also on track to cause a surge in severe malnutrition and even starvation around the world.
That's the grim assessment of many experts on global food security, who point to how heavily the rest of the world relies on Ukraine and Russia for wheat and a slew of other essential commodities. As that supply is cut off, it will drive up food prices that are already at record levels – and at a time when the economic fallout from the pandemic has already pinched household budgets, most devastatingly in low-income countries.
"Frankly I'm extremely worried," says Arif Husain, chief economist at the World Food Programme. "People in Ukraine are in a disastrous situation and they're fighting for their lives. But this disaster is beyond borders. It is also going to hurt people thousands of miles away."
To find out just how bad things could get, NPR spoke to Husain, as well as to another prominent analyst, Joseph Glauber, a senior research fellow of the International Food Policy Research Institute, or IFPR. Both Glauber and Husain laid out some alarming scenarios. But they also pointed to concrete actions the world could take to ensure the…”
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New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/20/world/americas/ukraine-war-global-food-crisis.html
“The war in Ukraine has delivered a shock to global energy markets. Now the planet is facing a deeper crisis: a shortage of food.
A crucial portion of the world’s wheat, corn and barley is trapped in Russia and Ukraine because of the war, while an even larger portion of the world’s fertilizers is stuck in Russia and Belarus. The result is that global food and fertilizer prices are soaring. Since the invasion last month, wheat prices have increased by 21 percent, barley by 33 percent and some fertilizers by 40 percent.
The upheaval is compounded by major challenges that were already increasing prices and squeezing supplies, including the pandemic, shipping constraints, high energy costs and recent droughts, floods and fires.
Now economists, aid organizations and government officials are warning of the repercussions: an increase in world hunger.
The looming disaster is laying bare the consequences of a major war in the modern era of globalization. Prices for food, fertilizer…”
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France 24
“Three weeks after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, the war is starting to have devastating effects not only on the ground, but in many countries that rely on Ukraine’s important wheat production. The United Nations has warned of a “hunger hurricane”, which is already starting to be felt in Northern Africa. FRANCE 24 takes a closer look.
On March 14, the UN’s Secretary-General Antonio Guterres issued a stark warning about the wider threats of the war in Ukraine: world hunger. “We must do everything possible to avert a hurricane of hunger and a meltdown of the global food system,” he said.
The comment echoed a similar concern voiced by David Beasley, the head of the World Food Programme, just a few days earlier: “The bullets and bombs in Ukraine could take the global hunger crisis to catastrophic levels. Supply chains and food prices will be dramatically impacted,” he said.
Ukraine, along with southwestern Russia, has long been known as “Europe’s breadbasket” thanks to the region's rich dark soil, chernozem, among the most fertile in the world. The region accounts “for about 15 percent of the world’s wheat production, and nearly 30 percent of world exports,” Sébastien Abis, a researcher at the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS) and director for the Deemeter Club think tank, which specialises in global agricultural issues, told FRANCE 24.
“But it’s not just wheat,” Abis said, “the two countries account for 80 percent of the world’s sunflower oil production, and Ukraine is the world’s fourth largest exporter of maize.”
As the fighting in Ukraine continues and the Russian offensive intensifies along the Black Sea coastline, these important crop producers have now been…”
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BBC
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60623941
The war in Ukraine will deliver a shock to the global supply and cost of food, the boss of one of the world's biggest fertiliser companies has said.
Yara International, which operates in more than 60 countries, buys considerable amounts of essential raw materials from Russia.
Fertiliser prices were already high due to soaring wholesale gas prices.
Yara's boss, Svein Tore Holsether, has warned the situation could get even tougher.
"Things are changing by the hour," he told the BBC.
"We were already in a difficult situation before the war... and now it's additional disruption to the supply chains and we're getting close to the most important part of this season for the Northern hemisphere, where a lot of fertiliser needs to move on and that will quite likely be impacted."
Russia and Ukraine are some of the biggest producers in agriculture and food globally.
Russia also produces enormous amounts of…”