IPCC Climate Change Report 2022: Highlights

Mar 24

Written By TBG

The newest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) paints a troubling picture: Climate change is already impacting every corner of the world, and much more severe impacts are in store if we fail to halve greenhouse gas emissions this decade and immediately scale up adaptation.

This third part of IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report follows on the second part which was released on February 28, 2022, and the first part published in August, 2021. The effort relied on 34,000 studies and involved 270 authors from 67 countries. It provides one of the most comprehensive examinations of the intensifying impacts of climate change and future risks, particularly for resource-poor countries and marginalized communities. Here’s a summary of the various working groups per The Guardian:

Working group 1, published in August 2021, covered the physical basis of climate science, delving deeply into atmospheric chemistry and physics. It found that humanity was “unequivocally” to blame for major and “unprecedented” changes to the climate that were already being observed, and that some of these changes – including polar ice melt – were rapidly becoming “irreversible”.
Working group 2, published in February 2022, dealt with the impacts of the climate crisis. It found that nowhere on Earth would escape the dire impacts, including heatwaves, droughts, floods and rising sea levels. Half of the global population is already “highly vulnerable”, mass die-offs of species are already under way, coastal areas face inundation at temperature rises of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, and key ecosystems are losing their ability to absorb carbon dioxide, turning from carbon sinks to carbon sources.
Working group 3, published on 4 April 2022, set out the ways in which the world can reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It found that countries were falling behind on the policies and actions needed to reach net zero emissions, and on current form could see temperatures rise by as much as 3C, a catastrophic level. Drastic changes will be needed to all aspects of the global economy and society, to phase out dependence on fossil fuels. Staving off the worst consequences predicted by the first two working groups is still possible, but only if governments take immediate and decisive action.

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Third Part of Report — Q&A via Carbon Brief:

“Limiting global warming to 1.5C or 2C would mean “rapid and deep” emissions reductions in “all sectors” of the global economy, says the latest report from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Instead, emissions have continued to rise – albeit at a slowing rate – and it will be “impossible” to stay below 1.5C with “no or limited overshoot” without stronger climate action this decade, says the new document, which forms part of the IPCC’s sixth assessment report (AR6).

It outlines how these emissions cuts could be achieved, including “substantial” reductions in fossil fuel use, energy efficiency, electrification, the rapid uptake of low-emission energy sources – particularly renewables – and the use of alternative energy carriers, such as hydrogen.

Over the past decade, rapid cost reductions in key technologies – such as wind, solar and batteries – mean that continuing to use high-carbon energy may be “more expensive” than the alternatives, the report says. Overall, the economy would benefit from limiting global warming, it adds.

Alongside rapid emissions reductions, the report says that carbon dioxide removal (CDR) will be “unavoidable” to reach net-zero. For the first time, it devotes a chapter to the “demand-side”, including diets and consumption patterns. Early action and demand-side solutions can minimise the need for CDR and give more time to bring CO2 emissions to net-zero, it says.

The report follows the publication of the first part of AR6, released in August last year, which set out how and why the Earth’s climate is changing. The second part of AR6, released in February, laid out the impacts of climate change and said the threat being posed to humans and the planet was “unequivocal”.

Over the past two weeks, government delegations have been meeting during a two-week approval session to agree on….”

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Second Part of Report — Key Highlights via Carbon Brief:

Climate change has already caused “substantial damages and increasingly irreversible losses, in terrestrial, freshwater and coastal and open ocean marine ecosystems”.

It is likely that the proportion of all terrestrial and freshwater species “at very high risk of extinction will reach 9% (maximum 14%) at 1.5C”. This rises to 10% (18%) at 2C and 12% (29%) at 3C.
Approximately 3.3 to 3.6 billion people “live in contexts that are highly vulnerable to climate change”.
Where climate change impacts intersect with areas of high vulnerability, it is “contributing to humanitarian crises” and “increasingly driving displacement in all regions, with small island states disproportionately affected”.
Increasing weather and climate extreme events “have exposed millions of people to acute food insecurity and reduced water security”, with the most significant impacts seen in parts of Africa, Asia, Central and South America, small islands and the Arctic.
Approximately 50-75% of the global population could be exposed to periods of “life-threatening climatic conditions” due to extreme heat and humidity by 2100.
Climate change “will increasingly put pressure on food production and access, especially in vulnerable regions, undermining food security and nutrition”.
Climate change and extreme weather events “will significantly increase ill health and premature deaths from the near- to long-term”.

Key Takeaways of Part 3 via Carbon Brief:

“Global net anthropogenic [greenhouse gas] GHG emissions during the decade (2010-19) were higher than any previous time in human history (high confidence).”

Although at least 90% of global GHG emissions are covered by climate targets, only 53% are covered by “direct” climate laws.
Following current climate pledges to 2030 would make it “impossible” to limit warming to 1.5C with “no or limited overshoot” – and “strongly increas[e] the challenge” for 2C.
“The global economic benefit of limiting warming to 2C is reported to exceed the cost of mitigation in most of the assessed literature (medium confidence).”
In pathways limiting warming to 1.5C with no or limited overshoot, global CO2 emissions peak “at the latest before 2025” and then fall to 48% below 2019 levels in 2030, reaching net-zero by the “early 2050s”. Global GHGs fall 43% by 2030 and 84% by 2050.
All scenarios limiting warming to 2C or below include “greatly reduced” fossil fuel use, with unabated coal being “completely” phased out by 2050.
“The deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to counterbalance hard-to-abate residual emissions is unavoidable if net-zero CO2 or GHG emissions are to be achieved.”
Accelerated climate action is “critical” to achieving sustainable development

BBC — Five Potential Solutions

1 - Coal is on the dole (again!)

“The 63 dense pages of this IPCC report are littered with qualifications and dense footnotes. But all the verbiage can't hide the scientists' central message. If the world wants to steer clear of dangerous warming, fossil fuels are toast. Keeping the world under 1.5C requires emissions to peak by 2025, the researchers say, and shrink by 43% by the end of this decade. The most effective way of making that switch is to generate energy from sustainable sources like wind and solar. The authors point to the collapse in costs of these technologies, down around 85% across the decade from 2010….”

2 - Pie in the sky gets real…

“A few short years ago, the idea of a technological fix to climate change was generally seen as the preserve of the eccentric. From spraying things into the atmosphere to cool the Earth to blocking out the Sun with space-based shields, various ideas were mocked, knocked and quickly forgotten. But as the climate crisis has escalated and cutting carbon emissions has proven difficult, researchers have been forced…”

3 - Curbing demand is a secret weapon

“One of the big differences with this report from previous releases is that social science features heavily. This is mainly focussed on the ideas of reducing people's demand for energy in the areas of shelter, mobility and nutrition. This covers a multitude of…”

4 - Cooling the planet with cash…

“Tackling climate change has often been delayed due to the perceived high-cost implications. But that sense has changed in recent years as the financial toll of climate disasters has steadily climbed. Now the IPCC are weighing in with some new guidance on the costs. The bottom line is that transforming our world, won't (and please pardon the pun) cost the Earth. Right now, the IPCC says there is far too much money still flowing towards fossil fuels and not to clean energy climate solutions. If fossil fuel subsidies from governments were…”

5 - Eat the rich… or copy them?

“There is renewed emphasis in this report on the outsized impact that richer people are having on the planet. According to the IPCC, the 10% of households with the highest per capita emissions contribute up to 45% of consumption-based household greenhouse gas emissions. In essence, the report says that the world's richest people are spending way too much of their money on mobility, including on private jets. So you would think that this would make them good targets for greater taxation or other means of curtailing their emissions? That may well be the case, but some IPCC authors believe…”

To continue the article, click >here.

Key Takeaways of Part 2 via IPCC:

Urgent action required to deal with increasing risks

Increased heatwaves, droughts and floods are already exceeding plants’ and animals’ tolerance thresholds, driving mass mortalities in species such as trees and corals. These weather extremes are occurring simultaneously, causing cascading impacts that are increasingly difficult to manage. They have exposed millions of people to acute food and water insecurity, especially in Africa, Asia, Central and South America, on Small Islands and in the Arctic.

To avoid mounting loss of life, biodiversity and infrastructure, ambitious, accelerated action is required to adapt to climate change, at the same time as making rapid, deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. So far, progress on adaptation is uneven and there are increasing gaps between action taken and what is needed to deal with the increasing risks, the new report finds. These gaps are largest among lower-income populations.

The Working Group II report is the second instalment of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), which will be completed this year.

“This report recognizes the interdependence of climate, biodiversity and people and integrates natural, social and economic sciences more strongly than earlier IPCC assessments,” said Hoesung Lee. “It emphasizes the urgency of immediate and more ambitious action to address climate risks. Half measures are no longer an option.”

Safeguarding and strengthening nature is key to securing a liveable future

There are options to adapt to a changing climate. This report provides new insights into nature’s potential not only to reduce climate risks but also to improve people's lives.

“Healthy ecosystems are more resilient to climate change and provide life-critical services such as food and clean water”, said IPCC Working Group II Co-Chair Hans-Otto Pörtner. “By restoring degraded ecosystems and effectively and equitably conserving 30 to 50 per cent of Earth’s land, freshwater and ocean habitats, society can benefit from nature’s capacity to absorb and store carbon, and we can accelerate progress towards sustainable development, but adequate finance and political support are essential.”

Scientists point out that climate change interacts with global trends such as unsustainable use of natural resources, growing urbanization, social inequalities, losses and damages from extreme events and a pandemic, jeopardizing future development.

“Our assessment clearly shows that tackling all these different challenges involves everyone – governments, the private sector, civil society – working together to prioritize risk reduction, as well as equity and justice, in decision-making and investment,” said IPCC Working Group II Co-Chair Debra Roberts.

“In this way, different interests, values and world views can be reconciled. By bringing together scientific and technological know-how as well as Indigenous and local knowledge, solutions will be more effective. Failure to achieve climate resilient and sustainable development will result in a sub-optimal future for people and nature.”

Cities: Hotspots of impacts and risks, but also a crucial part of the solution

This report provides a detailed assessment of climate change impacts, risks and adaptation in cities, where more than half the world’s population lives. People’s health, lives and livelihoods, as well as property and critical infrastructure, including energy and transportation systems, are being increasingly adversely affected by hazards from heatwaves, storms, drought and flooding as well as slow-onset changes, including sea level rise.

“Together, growing urbanization and climate change create complex risks, especially for those cities that already experience poorly planned urban growth, high levels of poverty and unemployment, and a lack of basic services,” Debra Roberts said.

“But cities also provide opportunities for climate action – green buildings, reliable supplies of clean water and renewable energy, and sustainable transport systems that connect urban and rural areas can all lead to a more inclusive, fairer society.”

There is increasing evidence of adaptation that has caused unintended consequences, for example destroying nature, putting peoples’ lives at risk or increasing greenhouse gas emissions. This can be avoided by involving everyone in planning, attention to equity and justice, and drawing on Indigenous and local knowledge.

A narrowing window for action

Climate change is a global challenge that requires local solutions and that’s why the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) provides extensive regional information to enable Climate Resilient Development.

The report clearly states Climate Resilient Development is already challenging at current warming levels. It will become more limited if global warming exceeds 1.5°C (2.7°F). In some regions it will be impossible if global warming exceeds 2°C (3.6°F). This key finding underlines the urgency for climate action, focusing on equity and justice. Adequate funding, technology transfer, political commitment and partnership lead to more effective climate change adaptation and emissions reductions.

“The scientific evidence is unequivocal: climate change is a threat to human wellbeing and the health of the planet. Any further delay in concerted global action will miss a brief and rapidly closing window to secure a liveable future,” said Hans-Otto Pörtner.

Media Coverage of Third Part via Carbon Brief:

“There is extensive global media coverage of the IPCC’s latest report – entitled “Mitigation of Climate Change” – which was published yesterday. The report details “ways of reducing emissions” and marks “the third and final section of the IPCC’s latest comprehensive review of climate science, drawing on the work of thousands of scientists”, the Guardian reports on its frontpage. The paper quotes Prof Jim Skea – a co-chair of the working group behind the report – who said: “It’s now or never, if we want to limit global warming to 1.5C. Without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, it will be impossible.” Outlets including the Independent, MailOnline, ITV News and BBC News also feature Skea’s quote. The Guardian, New Scientist, South China Morning Post and the Times highlight that, according to the report, global emissions must peak by 2025 to limit warming to 1.5C above preindustrial temperatures. The New York Times says that reaching this goal would require a 43% reduction in global emissions by 2030. Yale E360 adds: “By mid-century, countries must cut their use of natural gas by 45%, oil by 60%, and must stop burning coal entirely. They must also remove large amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, for instance, by planting trees. The IPCC report said that such progress is not unrealistic thanks to rapidly falling prices for solar, wind, and batteries, which have dropped by as much as 85% since 2010. But countries must act swiftly to cut emissions.” Reuters notes that only two of the eight warming pathway categories in the report – C1 and C2 – would limit warming to 1.5C.“ Far more than in its previous reports, the “IPCC highlights inequalities in who produces the emissions driving climate change,” the Reuters reports separately. “The latest UN climate report suggests the world has to end new fossil fuel infrastructure to meet current goals,” Vox says.

António Guterres, the secretary-general of the United Nations, unveiled the report at a virtual news conference yesterday. The Independent says that in his speech he accused some governments and businesses of “lying” and called the countries increasing production of fossil fuels – not climate activists – the “truly dangerous radicals. Guterres called the report “a file of shame, cataloguing the empty pledges that put us firmly on track toward an unlivable world,” Associated Press adds. The New York Times, Sky News and the Guardian have published videos of Guterres’ remarks. Meanwhile, Bloomberg quotes former UN climate chief Christiana Figueres: “I don’t have words to explain. ‘Concerning’ is not enough. This is frankly a terrifying report.”

In other coverage, the Washington Post outlines “six steps the world can take to halt climate change” – including a shift to renewables and increasing the energy efficiency of buildings. Similarly, the Guardian outlines key points from the report, including carbon dioxide removal and lifestyle change. Elsewhere, Politico says that, according to the report, “tackling climate change will mean rethinking how cities are designed and function”. Meanwhile, the Independent quotes Guterres’ comment that “we must triple the speed of the shift to renewable energy”. The Wall Street Journal also focuses on the need to transition to renewables. Elsewhere, AP says the report has brought Africa’s “vast clean energy potential into the spotlight”. Meanwhile, Bloomberg notes that “over half of the 150 biggest financial institutions have no restrictions on financing oil and gas”. And the Independent carries a piece on carbon capture and storage. The almost-3,000 page report “represents the IPCC’s first analysis of humanity’s remaining paths for climate action since the landmark Paris agreement,” the Washington Post says. CNN adds: “While the focus on solutions give the report an optimistic tone, it also serves as a reminder of how policies lag far behind science, technology and even economics.” Meanwhile, AP says that “scientist after scientist stresses that curbing global warming is not hopeless”. And ARF News says “the latest UN climate report is positive news”. Elsewhere, the Guardian outlines the difference between – and significance of – the three IPCC working group reports. And outlets including the Independent, Reuters, Climate Home News, the New York Times, the Independent and Politico have published lists of “key takeaways” from the report.

Media Coverage via Carbon Brief:

There is widespread media coverage of the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), entitled “Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability”. The report warns that many of the impacts of global warming are now “irreversible”, but there is “still a brief window of time to avoid the very worst” impacts, BBC News reports. It adds that, according to the IPCC, “humans and nature are being pushed beyond their abilities to adapt”. Meanwhile, the Guardian calls the report the “bleakest warning yet” on climate change. According to the report, “countries aren’t doing nearly enough to protect against the disasters to come as the planet keeps heating up”, says the New York Times. The Washington Post says that humanity has a “brief and rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all” and the Financial Times says that climate change risks are greater than previously thought. The Independent live-blogged the launch of the report, which AP news calls a “house on fire” report. A second Guardian article adds that the report is based on 34,000 studies, was written by more than 1,000 scientists and was unanimously approved by the governments of 195 nations.

The report is “at once a withering indictment and an industrious guide”, says Climate Home News. The outlet adds that the report “dispenses with hypotheticals, offering the most sure-footed evaluation yet of how we have already changed our climate beyond many ecosystems’ ability to cope”. And the Hill says the report shows that “nowhere near enough money is being spent to help countries, cities and corporations adapt to climate change”. Outlets including Times, Forbes and the New Scientist report that more than 3 billion people are already “highly vulnerable” to climate change. The Wall Street Journal highlights the health and economic impacts caused by extreme weather events. Reuters says that climate change could drive up world poverty, while the i newspaper says that “food and water supplies for billions of people around the world will be pushed to the brink of collapse if climate change continues unabated”. The Financial Times outlines the risks of climate change to the global supply chain, while the Independent says that climate change “poses [a] global risk to biodiversity”. Separately, the Independent highlights the impact of climate change on mental health, noting that this report “marks the first time the IPCC has spelled out a link between mental health and the climate crisis”. And the National Geographic has published a piece focusing on heat stress.

In regional coverage, the i newspaper and Politico stress that European countries will face more heatwaves, while AP News carries pieces on the Great Barrier reef and South America. The Independent has published separate pieces highlighting key findings for Europe, Asia and cities, while the Times of India calls the report “another big warning to India’s political leaders”. Outlets including the Independent, BusinessGreen, the Belfast Telegraph, AP News, Yale E360 and Politico quote UN secretary general Antonio Guterres, who called the report “an atlas of human suffering and a damning indictment of failed climate leadership”. Inside Climate News and Reuters lead with Guterres’ statement: “Delay is death”. Elsewhere, outlets including the Washington Post, the New York Times, Reuters, the i newspaper, Bloomberg, Climate Home News and the Independent have published lists of key takeaways from the report. And AP News and Reuters have published expert reactions to the report. Of course, Carbon Brief has also covered the report, with an in-depth Q&A.