Global News Round-Up: Election Special
Over the course of the last 10 days, we have witnessed a number of seismic election outcomes. Europe’s Far-Right surged in the EU elections, forcing Pres. Macron to call for legislative elections in France within the next month. Mexican voters elected the first female President – former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum — amidst a wave of violence targeting politicians. In South Africa, the dominant ANC Party, which has ruled the country since the end of apartheid in 1992, secured only 40% of the vote. Meanwhile, India’s highly popular PM Modi’s BJP Party was expected to register a landslide victory but fell far below the supermajority it needed. Meanwhile, in Israel, the Netanyahu government is suddenly facing a critical moment as Benny Gantz announced his departure from the war cabinet on June 9th. Enclosed below are curated articles selected by the TBG team.
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EUROPE
Macron Calls for Shock French Election after Far-Right Rout
Reuters: “French President Emmanuel Macron rolled the dice on his political future on Sunday, calling snap legislative elections for later this month after he was trounced in the European Union vote by Marine Le Pen's far-right party.
Macron's shock decision set off a political earthquake in France, offering the far-right a shot at real political power after years on the sidelines and threatening to neuter his presidency three years before it ends."
If Le Pen's National Rally (RN) party wins a parliamentary majority, Macron would be left with little sway over domestic affairs.
Macron said the EU result was grim for his government, and one he could not ignore. In an address to the nation, less than two months before Paris hosts the Olympics, he said lower house elections would be called for June 30, with a second-round vote on July 7. “
France: Marine Le Pen's far-right party makes historic gains in EU elections
Euronews: “The National Rally party gained 31.5% of support in France according to exit polls on Sunday, becoming the first French party to receive more than 30% of votes in European elections since 1984.
The far-right National Rally (RN) party secured 31,5% of votes in the European elections on Sunday, leaving behind President Emmanuel Macron's Renaissance, according to first exit polls.
Macron's Renaissance party, led by Valerie Hayer, received 15.2% of the votes -- not even half of National Rally's support -- a decline from the 22% it received in the 2019 elections. National Rally, on the other hand, saw an eight-point increase in support from the 23% it received five years ago.”
Far-right gains in EU elections deal defeats to France's Macron and Germany's Scholz
NPR: “Far-right parties made such big gains at the European Union parliamentary elections that they dealt stunning defeats to two of the bloc's most important leaders: French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
In France, the National Rally party of Marine Le Pen dominated the polls to such an extent that Macron immediately dissolved the national parliament and called for new elections, a massive political risk since his party could suffer more losses, hobbling the rest of his presidential term that ends in 2027.
In Germany, Scholz suffered such an ignominious fate that his long-established Social Democratic party fell behind the extreme-right Alternative for Germany, which surged into second place.”
MEXICO
She is Set to be Mexico’s First Female President. But Who is Claudia Sheinbaum?
CNN: “Known as “la Doctora” for her glittering academic credentials, Claudia Sheinbaum is a physicist with a doctorate in energy engineering, the former mayor of one of the world’s most populous cities, and was part of the United Nations panel of climate scientists that received a Nobel Peace Prize.
And on Sunday, she became the first woman, and the first Jewish person, to be elected president of Mexico.
Sheinbaum won around 60% of the vote in the largest election in Mexico’s history, marking a historic achievement in a mostly Catholic country known for its deeply patriarchal culture.”
Can a Climate Scientist Turn Around an Oil Country
BBC: “In Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico has elected the most scientifically experienced climate premier in history. Can she make a difference?
Margaret Thatcher in Britain. Angela Merkel in Germany. And now Claudia Sheinbaum in Mexico. All three are the first women to be elected leader of their nations. All three are also renowned for their scientific expertise.
Historically, the combination has been a boon for environmental issues. In the late 1980s, Thatcher, who had a background as a research chemist, sounded the alarm on global warming at the UN. In the 2010s, Merkel, with a doctorate in quantum chemistry, was a champion of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change.”
Wilson Center: “On Sunday, 2 June, Mexico elected its first woman president: Claudia Sheinbaum.
Symbolically, this represents a huge leap forward for women in Mexico. While the country has been a regional forerunner in terms of the participation of women in politics, its most powerful role has never been held by a woman. Her victory should not be examined in isolation. It is the result of the extraordinary social, institutional, and cultural changes the country has experienced in questions of gender parity and women’s participation in public positions.
With that said, Sheinbaum is inheriting a country wracked with complex challenges, from crime to economic growth, from a human rights crisis to the intensifying impacts of climate change.”
SOUTH AFRICA
South Africa’s ANC Faces a Tough Decision After Losing Majority
The Guardian: “South Africa’s ruling African National Congress party has lost its three-decade electoral majority in devastating fashion. As the former liberation movement faces the task of building a coalition government, it remains to be seen how it will respond to the message sent to it by voters.
The ANC’s vote share collapsed from 57.5% in 2019 to 40.2% in last week’s elections, amid chronic unemployment, degraded public services and high rates of violent crime.
The party also lost control of three of South Africa’s nine provinces, including KwaZulu-Natal, where the impact of the former president Jacob Zuma’s new party, uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) – which surprised with 14.6% of the vote nationally – was felt most keenly.”
What Happens Next in South Africa after ANC Loses Majority?
Reuters: For the first time in South Africa's democratic era, the African National Congress (ANC) will have to seek one or more coalition partners to govern with after it fell well short of a majority in last week's national election.
Here are scenarios of what could happen next in South Africa and which parties the ANC might partner with:
The ANC won just 40% of votes, by far its worst result since democratic elections began in 1994 after the end of apartheid and leaving it short of a majority in parliament.
If Ramaphosa survives the voters' backlash, he would carry on at least for a while to broker a coalition deal with another party in a bid to secure a parliamentary majority, though analysts say he may struggle to serve for a second full term.
Tipped as potential successors are other ANC politicians such as Deputy President Paul Mashatile or Gwede Mantashe, currently in charge of the mines and energy ministry.”
South Africa’s ANC Leans Toward a ‘Unity’ Government that Evokes Mandela but Divisions are There
AP: “South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and other senior officials of the African National Congress party were in a critical meeting Thursday to decide if they should formally propose a “unity” government bringing in all major parties to solve a political deadlock in Africa’s most industrialized country before a June 16 deadline.
A government of national unity, which ANC officials said is the first option on the table, evokes South Africa’s transition from apartheid’s white minority rule to a democracy in 1994.
Then, new President Nelson Mandela brought political opponents — including the last apartheid leader — into his first government to foster unity in a fractured country.”
INDIA
Why India’s Modi Failed to Win Outright Majority
BBC: “Indian PM Narendra Modi has won a third consecutive term in a much tighter general election than anticipated.
His Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) looks set to fall short of a majority and is leading in the 543-seat parliament, below the required 272 seats. However its coalition partners have gained additional seats.
The results are a personal blow to Mr Modi, who has always secured majorities in elections as both chief minister of Gujarat state and India’s prime minister, and dominated the country's politics for a decade.
The verdict marks a surprising revival for the Congress Party-led INDIA opposition alliance, defying earlier predictions of its decline, and sharply diverging from both exit polls and pre-election surveys.”
Modi Won the Indian Election. So Why Does it Seem Like he Lost?
VOX: Narendra Modi will be sworn in for his third term as India’s prime minister on Sunday after winning the post again in India’s momentous 2024 elections. But this week’s elections delivered a shocking blow to Modi’s dominance and will likely curb his autocratic tendencies.
There was never any serious doubt that Modi would remain in the top spot; he faced no credible opposition during the last two elections. And heading into this year’s six-week-long staggered election, he was widely expected to further consolidate his hold over Indian politics.
But surprisingly, he did not: Not only did Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lose a huge number of parliamentary seats to a revitalized opposition coalition, but it also lost big in states where it has enjoyed massive popularity, including Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state.
Modi has Declared Victory in India's Election, but not the Landslide He Expected
NPR: “Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has declared an election victory, as his coalition won more than half of parliamentary seats, with votes still being counted.
That sets Modi on course to win a third consecutive term — the country's first prime minister to do so in more than 60 years.
This comes after a six-week-long election, where nearly 1 billion people were eligible to vote.
The National Democratic Alliance "is going to form the government for the third time, we are grateful to the people," Modi said in a speech at the headquarters of his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in New Delhi. "This is a victory for the world's largest democracy."
ISRAEL
Israeli Minister Benny Gantz Resigns from War Cabinet in Blow to Netanyahu
CNN: “Israeli war cabinet member Benny Gantz has resigned from Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, delivering a blow to the prime minister who has been celebrating the rare rescue of hostages held in Gaza.
“Netanyahu prevents us from moving forward to a real victory [in Gaza],” Gantz said in a televised statement Sunday in which he described leaving the government as a “complex and painful” decision.
“That is why we are leaving the emergency government today with a heavy heart, but with a whole heart,” he said.
Gantz – considered Netanyahu’s main political challenger – said he was quitting eight months after the October 7 Hamas attacks because “the situation in the country and in the decision-making room has changed.”
Benny Gantz, Man in the Middle Squeezed Out by Israel's Netanyahu
Reuters: “In the traumatic aftermath of the Oct. 7 attacks on Israel, as hundreds of thousands of Israeli reservists rushed to join the ranks to fight Hamas, Benny Gantz said he felt it was his duty to join the war effort.
"This is not a political partnership I am in," the centrist former general told a group of reporters, shortly after agreeing to join Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in an emergency wartime government of unity. Instead, it was "destiny".
"Hamas started the war but Israel will win it. There is no doubt about it. We will win this war," he said.
Now, eight months in, the early confidence of those remarks made as Israel was starting to get back on its feet following the shock of Oct 7, appears to have ebbed.