Climate Change and Latin America: Why Have Latin American Countries Fallen Short Of Their Climate Promises?

It is no secret that climate change and extreme weather threaten human health and safety in Latin America. The impacts are apparent in the entire region, including but not limited to: increasing temperatures, different rainfall patterns, and storms that have all had a severe effect on human health and safety, food, water, energy security, and the environment. Concerns about wildfires and the loss of forests, a vital carbon sink in Latin America, are reported in the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) study. 

Some models indicate that temperatures in the Amazon will increase by 2–3°C, and rainfall will decrease during dry months by 2050. According to research by the INPE – Brazil's National Space Research Institute, a warmer and drier environment for the region could convert from 30% to 60% of the Amazon rainforest into a type of dry savanna. In addition, the Guardian stated that "Amazon could shrink by 85% due to climate change." This means that over time, the changing nature of the Amazon will significantly affect the region's forests, water availability, biodiversity, agriculture, and human health. 

Because climate change is not just a problem for Latin America but the entire world, there have always been climate negotiations between post-industrial countries in the Global North and developing countries in the Global South. Accordingly, the Global North pressured Latin American countries to join several pledges in the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) to help mitigate climate change risk by 2030. 

For example, at COP26, Brazil pledged to reduce Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions by 50% by 2030. However, that goal exceeds Brazil's commitment to its green growth action plan, where Brazil pledged to reduce carbon emissions by 43% during the Paris Agreement in 2015. Based on Brazil's records, it did not start reducing its emissions by the promised dates. In fact, its emissions usage grew in 2006, which made Brazil one of the few countries to face a rise in emissions during the pandemic. According to the National Institute of Space Research, "If Brazil had followed its previous deforestation commitments, the rate would be about a third of what it is now."

So, who's at fault that Brazil and other Latin American countries continually fall short of their climate promises?

To answer this question, we must examine how climate negotiations are shaped. The climate discussions between Global North have been going on for years. The arguments are determined by: (1) Climate Change Responsibilities and (2) Sustainability Priorities of the Global North and the Global South countries. 

Climate Change Responsibilities

One primary debate is which country is responsible for the highest GHG emissions. According to one study, the United States, the EU, and China are responsible for 59% of global CO2 emissions, and Brazil is responsible for just 0.9%. Therefore, the South believes that the North owes it a massive Ecological debt for its enormous contribution to GHG and climate change consequences. 

As the wealthier countries were held responsible for climate change in the South, wealthy countries promised to transfer US$100 billion a year through the Green Climate Fund (GCF) to developing countries by 2020 to help them mitigate the risks of climate change consequences in the region. However, rich countries failed to collectively fulfill their obligation in 2020 to transfer US$100 billion to developing countries. Thus, in 2020, developing countries/less wealthy nations, including Latin American countries, were the most vulnerable and hit hard due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the lack of climate change funding exacerbated environmental conditions, consequently pushing more people to abandon their homes. 

The broken promises of wealthy nations frustrated developing countries and raised tensions between the South and the North. Saleemul Huq, director of the International Centre for Climate Change and Development in Dhaka, stated COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, UK, in 2021 that "By the time we get to Glasgow, if they haven't given us another $100 billion [for 2021], then they are completely unable to meet their obligations."

Sustainability Priorities

We should also look at the sustainability priorities of the Global North versus the Global South. According to the research on Sustainable City Priorities in Global North Versus Global South, "goals of the sustainable city which have been organized for Global North cannot, or should not be applied to Global South without any localization."  In other words, it is essential for the Global North should consider the Global South priorities and criteria, such as poverty, starvation, unemployment, etc., before pressuring them to implement policies to face climate change. We should understand that what made developed countries wealthy by plundering their environment. So is it fair for developed countries to push developing countries to stop producing GHG, which will consequently impact their economies?

Answering this question is not easy. The climate divide between the Global North and Global South is not a one-way street. However, approaching mid-2022, the Global South seems far from reaching its climate change mitigation goals. The Global South is suffering the most from climate change consequences and the pressure to implement policies that serve the Global North's needs. Therefore, the developing countries in the Global South should have more space to include their voice. 

This means that the climate change issues cannot be discussed without addressing inequality around the Global South or the world. The discussions between the North and South should focus on inclusive and more profound instead of implementing one-size-fits-all solutions. For example, the Global North should not just push Global South to reduce GHG but also strengthen international agreements that handle migration and climate change, such as Paris Agreement.

References:

Climate Change In The Amazon: https://wwf.panda.org/discover/knowledge_hub/where_we_work/amazon/amazon_threats/climate_change_amazon/

Amazon could shrink by 85% due to climate change, scientists say (March 2009): https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/mar/11/amazon-global-warming-trees#:~:text=Amazon%20could%20shrink%20by%2085%25%20due%20to%20climate%20change%2C%20scientists%20say,-This%20article%20is&text=Global%20warming%20will%20wreck%20attempts,by%20even%20modest%20temperature%20rises.

Sustainable City Priorities in Global North Versus Global South (June 2013): https://www.ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/jsd/article/view/26372

Who has contributed most to global CO2 emissions? (October 2019): https://ourworldindata.org/contributed-most-global-co2

New report shows impacts of climate change and extreme weather in Latin America and Caribbean (August 2021): https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/new-report-shows-impacts-of-climate-change-and-extreme-weather-latin-america-and

How Deep Is the North-South Divide on Climate Negotiations? (October 2021): https://carnegieeurope.eu/2021/10/06/how-deep-is-north-south-divide-on-climate-negotiations-pub-85493

The broken $100-billion promise of climate finance — and how to fix it (November 2021): https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02846-3

Once a Climate Leader, Brazil Falls Short in Glasgow (November 2021): https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/02/world/americas/brazil-climate.html#:~:text=From%20August%202020%20to%20July,of%20what%20it%20is%20now.

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