Global Outlook 2024: Major Trends, Predictions and Forecasts
What should we expect in 2024? A total of 65 countries will hold elections (involving 4.2 billion people) and there are numerous geopolitical flashpoints as well as critical socioeconomic and technological trends. So what is the 2024 outlook —- what are the key trends, predictions and forecasts ? The Bassiouni Group has curated several key articles covering a wide range of topics from Geopolitics to Technology to Climate to Consumer/Retail. Scroll below and let us know what you think — send us an email.
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ECONOMY
The Global Economy will Perform Better than Many Expect in 2024 — Goldman Sachs
“Goldman Sachs Research expects the global economy to outperform expectations in 2024 — just as it did in 2023. That outlook is based on our economists’ prediction for strong income growth (amid cooling inflation and a robust job market), their expectation that rate hikes have already delivered their biggest hits to GDP growth, and their view that manufacturing will recover. Central banks, meanwhile, will have room to reduce interest rates if they’re concerned about the economy slowing. “This is an important insurance policy against a recession.”
What to Expect from the Global Economy — Harvard Business Review
“As 2023 comes to a close, the global economy is, in many ways, doing better than expected. The U.S. not only avoided a recession but has grown at a steady clip. Unemployment has been low and, crucially, inflation is falling in most of the world. And yet, the economic outlook remains deeply uncertain. Higher interest rates are grinding their way through the system, wars are wreaking havoc around the world, and climate disasters are becoming more and more common. Five-year growth prospects for the global economy have never been worse. The macroeconomic situation in 2024 will remain difficult and uncertain — but there are key themes and questions every business leader should keep an eye on heading into next year.”
Global Triggers : Global triggers: why these five big issues could cause significant problems in 2024 — The Conversation
“The tensions between the US and China made the global economy shudder in 2023. The ramifications of the Ukrainian war echoed beyond the country’s border. In Africa, the coup d’état in Niger and Gabon contributed to the global democratic retreat of recent years and the Hamas/Israel conflict has so far resulted in thousands of deaths. Such trends of global power tensions, open war, democratic decline and extreme job market fluctuations are likely to continue in 2024. With this in mind, here are five global geopolitical and economic trends to watch out for.”
Economies in 2024: Key Trends to Watch — Euromonitor International
“In 2024, economies and cities across many parts of the world will see a subdued growth environment, with higher-for-longer interest rates and geopolitical uncertainties weighing on consumption, investment, manufacturing and trade. On the upside, easing commodity prices and inflation will give some breathing room for companies and households. While global manufacturing is set to slow down, some markets and sectors could witness growing opportunities, driven by manufacturers’ location diversification efforts.”
Asia-Pacific: Key themes to watch in 2024 —S&P Global Market Intelligence
As the world continues its geopolitical rebalancing, the Asia-Pacific region faces potentially significant risks across the economic and political arenas in 2024. The indicators for these risks include the path of mainland China's economic recovery and Japan's normalization of monetary policy, as well as key elections across the region and developments in critical conflict theaters. Supply chain shifts in manufacturing and critical minerals will increasingly be shaped by national security concerns, reflective of key bilateral and multilateral relations among governments.
GEOPOLITICS
10 Conflicts to Watch in 2024 — Crisis Group
“Can we stop things falling apart? 2024 begins with wars burning in Gaza, Sudan and Ukraine and peacemaking in crisis. Worldwide, diplomatic efforts to end fighting are failing. More leaders are pursuing their ends militarily. More believe they can get away with it. War has been on the rise since about 2012, after a decline in the 1990s and early 2000s. First came conflicts in Libya, Syria and Yemen, triggered by the 2011 Arab uprisings. Libya’s instability spilled south, helping set off…”
Expert panel: How will Russia’s invasion of Ukraine develop in 2024? — Atlantic Council
“As winter arrives, Ukrainian officials are reflecting on the 2023 counteroffensive and attempting to anticipate the next stage of the war with Russia. In Washington, despite a strong bipartisan consensus in favor of continued military support for Ukraine, the House of Representatives has yet to vote on a new aid package following a series of delays. To unpack recent developments and analyze what impact they will have on the war during the coming year, the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center hosted a virtual event in late November featuring an expert panel and moderated by Shelby Magid, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.
Ukraine war: Three ways the conflict could go in 2024 — BBC News
“The conflict in Ukraine is about to enter its third calendar year. The front lines have hardly moved in the last few months but could the course of the war change in 2024? President Volodomyr Zelensky has admitted his country's spring offensive has not been the success he hoped. Russia still controls about 18% of Ukraine. We asked three military analysts how they think events may unfold in the coming 12 months…”
The year of elections – Is 2024 democracy’s biggest test ever? — Al Jazeera
“It’s the year of the vote. Countries that are home to nearly half of the world’s population will pick their governments in elections in 2024 – something that has never happened in a single year before. Starting with Bangladesh on January 7, the polls include seven out of the world’s 10 most populous nations: India, the United States, Indonesia, Pakistan, Russia and Mexico are the others. Some are established democracies, others are fledgling ones, and still others are…”
Asia Outlook 2024 — Economist Intelligence Unit
“Asia is set to experience strong growth in 2024, despite China’s slowing economy and regional geopolitical tensions. The political outlook will be dominated by elections across the region, including in strategically important economies such as India, Indonesia and Taiwan. The green energy industry will be a bright spot as markets seek regional alternatives to Chinese supply. Our latest report, Asia outlook 2024, examines the trends that will shape the economic, political and policy landscapes in the region.”
Asia-Pacific: Key themes to watch in 2024 —S&P Global Market Intelligence
As the world continues its geopolitical rebalancing, the Asia-Pacific region faces potentially significant risks across the economic and political arenas in 2024. The indicators for these risks include the path of mainland China's economic recovery and Japan's normalization of monetary policy, as well as key elections across the region and developments in critical conflict theaters. Supply chain shifts in manufacturing and critical minerals will increasingly be shaped by national security concerns, reflective of key bilateral and multilateral relations among governments.”
CLIMATE CHANGE & ENVIRONMENT
Geopolitical & Economic Outlook 2024: The Fight for Natural Resources and Artificial Intelligence — Reuters
“As we continue our three-part series on the major challenges the world and the global economy will face in 2024, we look at how the fight for natural resources and the impact of AI will reverberate. This coming year stands as a pivotal moment not only for the global trade system but also for the intensifying competition in both natural resources and advanced artificial intelligence (AI). On one hand, the global stage will confront heightened challenges in securing and managing essential resources, a struggle deeply intertwined with geopolitical rivalries. On the other, there is an equally critical race for dominance in the field of AI, a key driver…”
24 Climate Predictions for 2024 — Grist
“Last year, climate change came into sharp relief for much of the world: The planet experienced its hottest 12-month period in 125,000 years. Flooding events inundated communities from California to East Africa to India. A heat wave in South America caused temperatures to spike above 100 degrees Fahrenheit in the middle of winter, and a heat dome across much of the southern United States spurred a 31-day streak in Phoenix of 110 degree-plus temperatures. The formation of an El Niño, the natural phenomenon that raises temperatures globally, intensified extreme weather already strengthened by climate change. The U.S. alone counted 25 billion-dollar weather disasters in 2023 — more than any other year….As we enter a new year, we asked Grist reporters what big stories they’re watching on their beats, 24 predictions for 2024.”
New Year, New Climate Tech Outlook: Climate and VC Predictions for 2024 — Forbes
With 2023 receding into the rear view, investors and entrepreneurs are turning their sights to the year ahead and starting to make bets on the technologies that will take off and the market conditions that will enable or inhibit them. First, let’s take a look at the last year. If narrowed to a single theme, 2023 was the year of AI. It was also a year marked by a tepid IPO market, downsized valuations and a sluggish fundraising environment. In the climate space, 2023 was a year of highs and lows. It dealt blows to the overall climate venture and growth ecosystem while also serving as an inflection point for the climate labor market and a courier of maturing climate companies. What will 2024 be the year of?”
Earth Boiled in 2023 — Will it Happen Again in 2024? — Nature
“The final numbers are in, and 2023 is officially the hottest year on record — shattering previous records, as well as the expectations of many climate scientists. And researchers say that 2024 could be even worse.Global temperatures this month, particularly in the oceans, are well above average for the time of year. The ongoing El Niño weather pattern — in which warm water pushes into the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean — is also entering its second year, a time when it typically supercharges global warming. These and other factors suggest that 2024 could see even more extreme weather and climate impacts than 2023, as humans continue to pour heat-trapping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.”
Davos 2024: 4 Takeaways from the Annual Meeting — World Economic Forum
The World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting takes place in Davos from 15-19 January 2024. Here are some of the key moments from this week. At the 54th World Economic Forum Annual Meeting global leaders met to rebuild trust, generate new ideas, and create partnerships to advance solutions to the challenges we face. From artificial intelligence, to climate change and global growth, we discussed how cooperation can help us make progress on the challenges we face today and into the future. These are some of the key talking points from this week.”
TECHNOLOGY:
Exploring the Top Tech Trends of 2024: Innovations on the Horizon — Medium
”We stand at the gate of new technological advancements in 2024 that will shape years to come. As the previous year gives way to 2024, several disruptive tech trends will converge, reshaping business landscapes and unlocking revolutionary technical possibilities. From groundbreaking advances in AI to developments in quantum tech and computing, the future beckons with tremendous potential. Leading tech executives give us a glimpse into the seismic shifts ahead and the main trends that will define 2024.”
20 New Technology Trends for 2024 — Yahoo Finance/InsiderMonkey
“In this article, we will be covering the 20 new technology trends for 2024. If you wish to skip our detailed analysis, you can move directly to the 5 New Technology Trends for 2024. A Modern Digital Era: Technology has transformed the world into a digital space over the years. As reported by McKinsey, 2023 has witnessed a technological comeback. Generative AI serves as one of those new technological advancements that have enabled this comeback. This emerging technology builds upon applied AI and machine learning and has the potential to influence numerous industries. “
Top 10 Technology Trends for 2024 — Technology Magazine
“From more advances in AI to cybersecurity and developments in quantum computing, we hear from a range of technology experts on their 2024 predictions. As the year comes to an end, the business landscape of 2024 will be reshaped by a potent confluence of disruptive forces. Generative AI's creative might and problem-solving prowess will unlock hidden efficiencies. Sustainability, no longer a buzzword, will morph into a strategic imperative, particularly when it comes to building AI models. And quantum computing, once science fiction, will crack open once-unimaginable possibilities.
Cutting-Edge Tech Trends to Watch in 2024 — CNet
“From quantum computers to brain implants, a lot of companies are pushing forward in areas that have previously been the stuff of science fiction. Here are three future tech trends that CNET's video team will be keeping an eye on in 2024 (you can watch the embedded video for a closer look). With computing at the heart of so much tech, we're kicking off with something that could revolutionize the very act of computing itself: quantum computers.”
Emerging tech trends for 2024: deepfakes, AI wearables and more — The Drum
“There have been some seismic technological shifts over the past 12 months. Each new week seemed to bring fresh, often baffling and sometimes nerve-wracking news from the tech world: Meta unveiled a pair of AI-enabled glasses; ChatGPT being endowed with a voice and the ability to analyze images; crypto wunderkind Sam Bankman-Fried’s conviction for fraud; the boardroom coup, interregnum and counter-revolution at OpenAI; Google’s release of multimodal AI system Gemini.And that’s just scratching the surface. Behind the scenes…”
CONSUMER & RETAIL
2024 Retail Trends: Can GenAI Deliver on the Consumer Promise — Forbes
“One year after every industry dove headfirst into GenAI hype, retail market gurus have surfaced with a boatload of tech-related ways that retailers will deploy to cut through market volatility and competitive threats, delivering intelligence that powers personalized customer experiences and solid business results. This is a quick round-up of the latest retail industry trends and predictions that revolve around increasingly intelligent merchandising, digital commerce, personalized marketing, and supply chain resilience.”
Retail Trends to Watch in 2024 — Insider Intelligence
“In 2024, consumer behavior will be shaped by continued economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, retailers will have to contend with a variety of competitive forces that will impact how they run their business. Stores will have a reawakening; newer ecommerce players with ties to China will shake up shopping; the retail media network (RMN) long tail may fold; and AI will continue to push the hyperpersonalization envelope.”
2024 Predictions: Ecommerce and Retail — MarTech
“In the year ahead, marketers will be looking to expand the channels and ordering methods that customers can use to shop online. Many of these channels have been around for years (see shoppable ads, below), but they will be tied together and more engaging thanks to AI innovations marketers will adopt in greater numbers.”
The State of Fashion 2024 — McKinsey
“Storm clouds are gathering, but the experience of recent years shows how the fashion industry may ride out the challenges ahead. In 2022, the industry again showed its resilience, almost equaling the record economic profit of 2021, the McKinsey Global Fashion Index shows. Echoing the pattern of the previous year, the luxury sector outperformed, with a 36 percent rise in economic profit that offset weakness in other segments…Looking toward 2024, the most prominent sentiment among fashion industry leaders is uncertainty, reflecting the prospect of subdued economic growth, persistent inflation, and weak consumer confidence.”