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U.S. Presidential Election: Five Key Themes
By admin November 3, 2020

U.S. Presidential Election: Male voter at voting booth

(Photo by Frederic J. BROWN / AFP) (Photo credit should read FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP via Getty Images)

The U.S. Presidential Election takes places today and, after all of the drama and controversy, it promises to be a monumental and highly consequential finale. Here are five key themes to look for in the hours and days to come:

 

(1) Early Voting Shatters Records — Despite the pandemic and other challenges to the democratic system, the U.S. is on track to experience the highest voter turnout in history – around 100m people have already voted early. Pre-election voting has now surpassed two-thirds of all ballots cast during the 2016 presidential election. For a country with a historically low voter turnout rate, this is certainly inspiring. Winston Churchill once famously said: “No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Democracy is the worst form of government except for all those other forms that have been tried.” It’s no secret that democracy has been under sustained attack over the last few years and it’s no secret that the American democratic system has also experienced challenges – particularly with voter suppression issues. So, the historic turnout so far is a welcome development that should be celebrated by all Americans – of every political affiliation. All voters should be inspired to do their part.

 

(2) Biden in Commanding Lead but Democrats Fret — Based on the steadiest polling in recorded history, Biden seems to have a commanding lead and a much stronger lead than Hillary Clinton 4 years ago. According to Politico, “President Donald Trump is in a deeper hole heading into Election Day than he was four years ago, when he stunned Hillary Clinton and most of America.The final polls before the election, released on Monday, continued to show Joe Biden ahead in enough swing states to win. Some of the states are close, but the polls would have to be significantly more inaccurate than they were in 2016 for Trump to prevail.” Despite Biden’s favorable chances, most Democrats are still anxious as they look back to 2016 when Trump upset Hillary Clinton — by winning key states (such as Pennsylvania by just 40K votes) to secure the electoral college. That said, the 2020 presidential election is a far different race than 2016 and it would take a major historical polling error for Trump to repeat his 2016 win.

 

(3) Swing State Serenade — Biden has numerous paths to 270 in the electoral college but the swing states will be key as the former Vice President is hoping to correct Hillary Clinton’s mistakes which led to the loss of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. This time, the picture is different. Per CNBC:“Joe Biden holds at least narrow leads over Donald Trump in the six 2020 election swing states of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to a CNBC/Change Research poll. The survey taken in the final stretch before Election Day also finds Democrats hold an edge in three pivotal Senate races in Arizona, Michigan and North Carolina.” In addition, Biden is competitive in key sun-belt states (particularly Texas & Arizona), and by stretching the map, he has forced Trump to defend red states. It seems that Biden has the edge in the swing states but it will come down to turnout, ballot counting (which could take longer given the massive influx of mail-in ballots) and potential legal challenges.

 

(4) Blue Sweep or Mixed Bag — It’s hard to determine if Democrats will usher in a “blue sweep” to capture the White House, Senate and the House but their chances are good. Per Politico’s Election Forecast, here’s where things stand: “In the race for the White House, Democrat Joe Biden is the favorite entering Election Day. There is still a plausible path for President Donald Trump to win an Electoral College majority — but it is narrow. The race for Senate control is close to a coin flip. Democrats are slight favorites, but the GOP could still hold on. In the House, Democrats have strengthened their grip as the national environment has swung toward them, and the party is likely to gain seats in the election and enter 2021 with a larger majority than in the previous Congress.”

 

(5) Women + Senior Voters + COVID Voters + Immigrant Voters — We are closely monitoring several key groups  who have the power to dramatically affect the outcome:

  • Women — Women constitutes the largest voting bloc. Although a surprisingly high percentage of suburban women voted for Trump over Clinton, the  2018 Women’s March sparked a revolution of sorts. The 2018 mid-terms signaled the massive shift back to the Democratic Party and that trend has continued. Biden has held a wide, double-digit (23%) lead amongst suburban women as Trump’s support collapsed. Some polls show Biden winning as much as 60% of suburban women compared to Hillary’s 52%. If the polling holds, we believe that the critical bloc of women voters (suburban, urban, minorities, parents, seniors, young/Millennials & Gen Z) should propel Biden to a sizable win overall. This is also symbolically important as 2020 marks the 100th anniversary of women’s suffrage. This presidential election may feature two septuagenerian white men but women will ultimately play the most critical role in selecting the next President.

 

  • Senior Voters – In addition to women,  Trump lost considerable ground with one of the most reliable Republican voting blocs —  senior voters. Per CNN, Biden “jumped out to an 11-point lead over President Donald Trump in CNN’s poll of polls.” CNN notes the following: “While Biden is doing better with pretty much all groups compared with 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, one group jumps out: seniors. Biden’s well on his way to doing better with seniors than any Democratic nominee in at least 24 years. Take a look at our latest CNN/SSRS poll. Biden’s up by 21 points among voters 65 and older. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll out over the weekend put him up by 27 points with seniors. These are, to put it mildly, massive differences from 2016. In the final average of registered-voter polls, Trump led Clinton by 5 points among seniors. His advantage was 6 points among likely voters. These polls are suggesting something along the lines of 25- to 30-point shifts in Biden’s direction.” At the end of this presidential election, it is likely that the senior vote will propel Biden.

 

  • COVID Voters — Per our August 20th post, we are witnessing a new kind of swing voter this year and that is the COVID Voter. We believe that the “COVID Voter will become the critical swing vote in the general election and this is likely given the broad impact of the pandemic and extreme disapproval of Pres. Trump’s handling of COVID-19 crisis — which now stands at 59%, a record high. In comparison, Vice-President Biden maintains a 53% to 37% lead on handling coronavirus. As of right now,  the U.S. has 9.2m million cases and  231,591 Americans have died. This pandemic has affected all Americans of every political stripe and, given the sheer number of those directly impacted and the rapidly-increasing infections, the COVID Voters will make for a decisive impact.

 

  • Immigrant Voters — When she was named as Biden’s VP, Kamala Harris became the first Indian-American VP and the first candidate born to two immigrant parents — a Black Jamaican father and an Indian mother. Indeed, Sen. Harris is particularly appealing to the more than 23m immigrants, particularly South Asian immigrants, who are eligible to vote this year. This is roughly 10% of the elctorate — a record amount. While Pres. Trump aimed to secure a share of the immigrant vote by reaching out to Indian-Americans and forming a relationship with PM Modi,  he may find that Sen. Harris is the sole recipient of that voting bloc. Furthermore, Pres. Trump’s anti-immigrant policies will almost certainly influence millions of Latinx, Arab-American and Asian voters to vote for the Biden-Harris ticket.

 

REMINDER: If you need help with planning your vote, just go to www.vote.org or www.iwillvote.com.

EDITOR’S NOTE:  TBG maintains a global network of over 500 experts in more than 150 countries. For more information on TBG’s consulting services, just send an email.

 

#voting #vote #election #elections #presidentialelection #biden #trump


Thanks for sharing !

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